This multidisciplinary programme at the Institute for Advanced Studies in Glasgow explores the way we model values and uncertainties about the future for public policy analysis, bringing together economists, management scientists, scenario planners, horizon scanners, psychologists, statisticians and others. Looking at cases in food, health and energy, the programme seeks to gain insights into ways that modelling tools in different areas can be combined to support better decision making.

1.       How do we value future flexibility, and do market valuations reflect this?

2.       How can we better link scenario planning and cost-benefit analysis, particularly for the purpose of evaluating public policy proposals?

3.       What credible methodologies can we develop to create a good understanding of how public policies, in different policy domains, interact?

4.       Can such methodologies be used to assess what sets of physical, social and intellectual infrastructure policies would give our society a robust transition into the next generation, say 30 years into the future?

Investing in an Uncertain Future is organized by Profs Tim Bedford (Strathclyde), Colin Eden (Strathclyde), Simon French (Manchester), Peter McKiernan (St Andrews) and Kim Swales (Strathclyde).

Speakers for the first meeting include: Grant Allan (University of Strathclyde), Tim Bedford (University of Strathclyde), Colin Eden (University of Strathclyde), Simon French (University of Manchester), Peter McKiernan (University of St Andrews), Nicola Morrel (DSTL), Jonathan Rosenhead (LSE), Graeme Roy (Scottish Government), Kim Swales (University of Strathclyde)
 
Speakers will give overviews of a number of different commonly used approaches in economics and management science, discussing their benefits, assumptions and application, covering Cost-Benefit Analysis, Portfolio Analysis, Scenario Planning, Expert Judgement, Mapping and Systems Dynamics. Graeme Roy from the Scottish Government will give his assessment of challenges to futures modeling. 
 
The meeting is open to all interested participants. There is no registration fee, but registration is required by 25th July to Matthew Revie, matthew.j.revie@strath.ac.uk.
 
The meeting will take place at IAS, 75 Montrose St, Glasgow, www.instituteforadvancedstudies.org.uk
 
For more information about the programme contact tim.bedford@strath.ac.uk, and cc matthew.j.revie@strath.ac.uk, and Igor.Eromenko@strath.ac.uk.

Programme events and meetings

The programme aims to bring together academics and policy analysts to generate outcomes of both immediate and longer term importance. A special issue of the Journal of Operational Research will be devoted to the programme, and we hope to issue a number of methodological guidance documents for policy analysts.

30 July – Methodology exchange: presentations and discussions to exchange information and views on the different techniques used to gain insights in horizon scanning and long-term policy analysis.

August/September (dates tbd) – Three case study days on food energy and health, focusing on a study in each area, with discussants, to highlight domain specific issues.

21-25 September - Talks and workshop activities around “Valuing the future”  (Theme 1), including contexts from food/energy/health; initial discussion of Themes 2 and 3.

12-16 October - Talks and workshop activities around “Linking quantitative and qualitative approaches to mapping the future” (Themes 2 and 3) including contexts from food/energy/health; drafting of green papers.

28th October - Public lecture by John Kay, entitled "Were Models Responsible for the Financial Crisis?". From 6pm, lecture theatre M405, James Weir Building, 75 Montrose street, Glasgow G1 1XJ. Read more about the speaker, John Kay, and download an abstract. To register, email.

17th November - Health day: one day workshop focusing on "Planning for a Pandemic". Download a programme.

26th November, 2pm - Shocks from a policy maker's perspective by John Elliott (Chief Economist, Home Office) will look at how alternative modelling techniques can be used in economic appraisals to add extra layers of realism to the assessments. For more info and registration, email.

27th November. Overcoming Silos in Policy Making. This half day session will look at how we understand policy impacts across different policy domains and avoid the creation of policy silos. Download a programme. For more info, email.

FANClub meeting 18 December - Presentation and discussion of green papers, and overall results from the programme.

If you would like to attend any of these events, please use the details below to contact the organising team. In some cases, space may be limited and anyone interested in the discussion is strongy encouraged to contact the programme organisers. IAS and the programme organisers reserve the right to refuse entry to anyone who has not received a confirmation of their attendance.

From here you can register for access to the group and document repository

Please note that registering for the group and document repository does not guarantee a place to attend the programme events. If you would like to attend a particular meeting or event, please email the organisers to enquire about attendance. Some events may only have a limited number of places available.

Learn more

If you would like to learn more about this programme, please email tim.bedford@strath.ac.uk, and cc matthew.j.revie@strath.ac.uk, and Igor.Eromenko@strath.ac.uk..